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From price cycles to structural demand: what is really reshaping grain markets

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Continuing the insights from the first panel at EuroGrainExchange 2026, where the initial discussion looked at the longer-term evolution of supply and demand, as well as how new tools and AI-driven models are improving early signals and market visibility, this second perspective brings the focus closer — to the current market environment and what is shaping the upcoming season, where those broader shifts begin to translate into real pricing, margins and trade decisions.

Grain and oilseed markets are no longer being shaped primarily by familiar seasonal patterns. While the past year has been marked by turbulence, the broader picture remains one of persistent price pressure, with markets trading well below recent peaks and offering little sign of structural recovery.

As Peter Clubb, International Grains Council, noted:

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This environment is increasingly disconnecting price from fundamentals at the farm level — a dynamic also reflected across producing regions in Central and Eastern Europe, where cost structures and logistical realities often weigh more heavily than market signals alone.

At the same time, demand is being reshaped in ways that go beyond traditional consumption. Rather than food or feed demand alone, policy is becoming a primary driver — particularly through biofuel mandates. As Artem Hammerschmidt, Ceras Analytics / Cefetra Group, highlighted.

This shift is already visible in global balances. Indonesia is expected to add over 1 million tonnes of palm oil demand in 2026 and another 1.5 million tonnes in 2027, while policy-driven growth in the EU and UK continues to support expansion in oils and fats consumption, especially in Asia. The result is stronger crush demand and tightening oilseed balances, even in an otherwise low-price environment.

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On the supply side, pressure is increasingly coming from costs rather than price direction. New crop wheat is trading close to old crop levels, while production costs continue to rise, limiting farmers’ flexibility and willingness to sell, as Masha Belikova, Fastmarkets, pointed out.

This creates a market where margins are squeezed from both sides — by flat prices and rising costs — reinforcing a pattern already visible across key producing regions.

Adding another layer of complexity, policy decisions are having an immediate and tangible impact on trade flows. Measures such as Turkey’s import quotas are not just local interventions; they quickly translate into price movements across FOB, CPT and CIF markets, underlining how interconnected and sensitive the system has become.

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Taken together, these signals point to a market that is moving beyond its traditional cycles. Structural demand growth, policy-driven consumption and cost pressure are increasingly interacting — creating an environment where adaptability matters more than direction, and where understanding the broader system becomes just as important as reading price signals.
Further insights from industry professionals with real market experience at the 4th edition of EuroGrainExchange will follow.

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