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A market under pressure from all sides

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Continuing the discussion from the second panel at EuroGrainExchange 2026, this second set of takeaways looks at another key dimension shaping the market today — the accumulation of pressure across the entire grain chain.

The grain market is no longer reacting to isolated disruptions. Pressure is now building simultaneously across production, demand and logistics — creating a more structural shift in how the entire chain operates.

At the origin, the issue is no longer simply low prices, but the growing mismatch between revenues and costs. While nominal prices may appear comparable to past years, inflation-adjusted returns tell a different story. As Dragos Costin Telehuz, co-owner of Telehuz Agriserv in Romania, pointed out, the real pressure sits on the cost side — where most inputs remain elevated and largely inflexible.

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In this environment, margins are no longer just compressed — they are structurally constrained. Climate volatility adds another layer of uncertainty, reducing predictability and making recovery from weak seasons increasingly difficult. The result is a shift in mindset: efficiency, timing and resilience are becoming more critical than scale alone.

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At the same time, demand is not weakening — it is evolving. The feed sector is playing a growing role as an integrator between grain, protein and animal production, effectively reshaping how demand is generated and where it is concentrated. As Iani Chihaia, President of the Romanian Feed Manufacturers Association (ANFNC), highlighted, the imbalance between regions is becoming more pronounced - Western and Eastern Europe. This dynamic is already redirecting livestock production and feed demand toward Central and Eastern Europe, gradually shifting the map of consumption closer to areas of production. In parallel, the market itself is becoming less price-driven and more execution-focused, where reliability and consistency increasingly outweigh nominal price levels.

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Overlaying both production and demand is a logistics system that has become a central source of risk. Grain trade today is no longer defined by price alone, but by the ability to execute in a tightly balanced system. As John Daskalakis, grain trader at Soya Hellas in Greece, emphasized, even relatively small cargoes depend on complex coordination across multiple actors, with very limited tolerance for disruption.
In regions such as the Mediterranean, where trade relies heavily on smaller vessels and tight scheduling, this fragility becomes even more pronounced. What used to be a background function is now a defining factor in market volatility.

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Seen in this context, the message becomes clear: pressure in the grain market is no longer isolated within one segment of the chain. Production, demand and logistics are all shifting at the same time — and understanding how these forces interact is becoming essential. In a market where margins are tight and volatility is structural, the advantage will increasingly belong to those who can navigate complexity, not just anticipate price direction.
Stay tuned for more insights from the other panels of the 4^th edition of EuroGrain Exchange 2026.

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